Much to the chagrin of many activists who were involved at some level in the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement during the 2024 presidential election, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently signed a targeted PREP Act declaration that enables the federal government to support the development and deployment of medical countermeasures.
Some prominent voices in the health freedom sphere (see here and here) view RFK Jr.’s move as a betrayal and a dangerous precedent. They point out that HHS should rescind the Covid-19 PREP Act declaration rather than insert an offspring into the picture.
Other MAHA activists see Kennedy’s decision as less of a cause for alarm. They explain that the new PREP Act declaration is narrow and targeted in that it names only one drug—favipiravir—for only one disease—the alleged Andes strain of the hantavirus.
As if in damage-control mode, RFK quickly released a follow-up message, which stirred up another round of questions, comments, concerns, and rebuttals.
A key question: Why is a liability shield needed if favipiravir is safe?
A key concern: Is this decision on his part a slippery slope that can lead to future countermeasures?
Back in 2024, RFK was singing a different tune. In a post on X, he took exception to then-HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra issuing a major new amendment to the PREP Act. That amendment, which ensured that manufacturers, distributors, and administrators of bird flu countermeasures were granted immunity from legal liability, allowed for Emergency Use Authorizations to be issued for bird flu vaccines—with no liability assumed by those same entities. The US government ordered 4.8 million doses of bird flu vaccine, valued at $22 million, from CSL Seqirus, one of the world’s largest influenza vaccine providers.
When viewed narrowly, neither the 2024 PREP Act amendment nor the 2026 PREP Act declaration make much sense. But, when each is placed in a broader context, where there’s a vastly ramped-up schedule of new mRNA-based therapeutics and vaccines in the works, both declarations have an obvious goal—one that portends all kinds of rewards for insiders and harms for us outsiders.
One fact to note is that the mRNA vaccine pipeline is being accelerated regardless of which political party is in power at any given moment.
The mRNA Vaccine Pipeline
It’s not possible to overstate the degree of financial and institutional investment that has been poured into the mRNA-based biomedical revolution. Talk has been circulating for years about this coming wave of mRNA products. In established industry circles, the talk is that this “medical miracle” of biomedicine has finally and fully arrived.
Recent studies indicate there are a total of 557 registered clinical trials focusing on mRNA therapeutics, with 507 (91%) of those trials involving mRNA “vaccines.” The vast majority (roughly 93%) of these candidates are currently in Phase 0 to Phase II clinical development and are pushing towards late-stage approval.
Of this 93%, Moderna and the Pfizer/BioNTech partnership have a combined control of more than 90% of all clinical-stage mRNA vaccine development.
The mRNA cheerleaders and investors profess that their products will be a panacea not only for infectious disease but also for chronic, non-communicable diseases. They claim that soon there will be combination influenza vaccines, bird flu vaccines, RSV vaccines, not to mention melanoma treatments, gastrointestinal treatments, lung and breast cancer treatments, glioblastoma treatments, and much, much more—all under the mRNA umbrella.
And that’s not all. There will be next-gen platforms, viral vector vaccines, protein sub-unit vaccines, personalized mRNA cancer vaccines, and mRNA vaccines for low-income countries, for high-income countries, for middle-income countries. You name it, mRNA to be tailored for any and every treatment, made for any and every illness under the sun.
According to the true believers and their financial collaborators, the Utopian mRNA Brave New World has arrived. But we, the presumed targets of all those mRNA needles and, if things go as planned, inhalers, had best not expect a free ticket on what is sure to be a rollercoaster ride in this genetic fantasyland. After all, these pie-in-the-sky plans require massive investments—buckets and buckets of money. And with those investments comes the inevitable demand for robust returns.
Make no mistake. Investors in the mRNA Leviathan will entwine their projects through public-private partnerships, comprised of global corporations (including central banks), foundations (tax havens for multibillionaire “philanthropists”), policy think tanks, governments (and their agencies), non-governmental organizations, selected academic and scientific institutions, global charities, and other chosen “thought leaders.”
And we can be sure they will continue to demand astronomical amounts of money.
Knowing that, it’s always wise to ask, “Exactly who bears the brunt of these costs and who reaps the rewards?”
The Business of the mRNA Empire
Creating any empire is an elaborate process that costs an immense fortune. The current global vaccine market valuation is estimated to be between $73 billion and $95 billion.
Depending on which financial analyst you believe, the overall market is projected to hit between $115 billion and $211 billion by the early 2030s. This includes research and development (R&D), public sector grants, and clinical trial costs.
All scenarios are counting on advancements in next-generation platforms like mRNA and are primarily sustained by expected increases in public health funding. The upper estimates are betting on “high value” personalized cancer vaccines (currently being developed by Moderna and Merck) getting regulatory approval and being commercialized by 2030.
The scale of this multibillion-dollar pipeline investment requires untold amounts of capital. Where will all the funds come from?
For one, the internal budgets of global pharmaceutical firms.
For another, government agencies.
For another, “non-profit” coalitions such as the Gates-funded Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI).
The reason the public and non-profit sectors are injecting billions into early-stage vaccine pipelines is to minimize corporate risk.
Additionally, massive financial institutions (think Fidelity, the Vanguard Group, BlackRock, State Street, and T. Rowe Price) provide long-term capital. They hold the largest public equity stakes in the companies that design the pharma products. All of these players are fueling this mRNA pipeline—not because it benefits the public but because, naturally, they expect hefty returns on their investment.
In large part because their investments are creating the market, the financial returns are “scaling rapidly,” which simply means the returns are growing very fast and making a lot more money without spending a lot more to produce those returns.
From a commercial standpoint, the pharmaceutical industry’s global vaccine market is projected to grow from the current $50.4 billion to over $63.6 billion by 2030, assuming the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is somewhere between 4.8% and 7.3%. But, when broader therapeutic applications are included in the forecast, the total combined vaccine market is projected to reach between $118.85 billion and $145.77 billion by 2030.
This figure is hardly to be scoffed at. Nonetheless, the true hypergrowth segment driving investor interest in vaccines is the high-margin next-gen mRNA market, which is forecast to have a 17% CAGR and a market size of around $31.3 billion by 2030.
Driving that next-gen mRNA segment is “the oncology jackpot”—the dream of all cancer researchers and their investors, who envision personalized cancer vaccines being crafted for each individual malady.
Such a fantastical mRNA bonanza would be the highest-yield segment in the vaccine pipeline. Indeed, analysts project the global personalized cancer vaccine market will skyrocket from $302 million today to a staggering $12.3 billion by 2035. This extraordinary 44.8% CAGR is expected to be realized when personalized mRNA therapeutics transition from the clinical testing phase to the production phase of these high-priced elixirs.
Underpinning all of this investment is the reality that, in the pharmaceutical world, money doesn’t chase demand; it proactively creates demand. In other words, the projected explosion of the personalized cancer vaccine market relies on a financial loop where the massive investments, the pricing structures, and the insurance reimbursement incentivize healthcare systems to adopt and promote these expensive therapies.
Keep in mind that the demand created by money is actually an artificial demand. It’s a demand on the part of industry players that “cutting-edge” pharma products and treatments be invented. The mRNA cancer vaccine is a perfect example of a specific “cutting-edge” treatment. The billions upon billions of dollars spent by Big Pharma, governments, financial institutions, non-profits, and foundations not only determine the medical consensus but also directly influence which treatments the doctors will endorse. It goes without saying that financial models designed to reimburse physicians create built-in financial incentives for them to favor high-cost “innovative” medications and treatments.
Every Good Racket Needs Protection
We started our story with the latest political dust-up in the health freedom movement specifically and in the medical industry overall. Our focus is wholly appropriate given that the mRNA vaccine juggernaut is more than just a debate about medications and treatments. This is also a monumental political battle over how public resources are allocated (or wasted) and over which recipients of that bounty are allowed to use those public resources for their private benefit.
What’s essential to understand is that public subsidies—whether through direct grants, clinical trial funds, or bulk government purchase contracts—provide the funding for a huge portion of these programs.
Usually the public has no idea that their income taxes are being funneled to private companies for the purpose of removing those companies’ biggest risks—namely, the chance that the millions spent on R&D, on marketing, and on manufacturing could result in a product that never makes it to market . . . or is a dud once on the market . . . or is defective when used by customers, thus creating significant liabilities.
Perhaps there is no instance of this government largess being so grotesquely exploited as when vaccine manufacturers and governments arrange prepurchase agreements. These contracts eliminate standard commercial risks and allow today’s vaccine makers to make some of the highest profit margins ever recorded in the history of the pharmaceutical industry.
In addition, the contracts serve as binding legal agreements under which governments commit to buying a specific quantity of a vaccine before the product has been finalized, fully manufactured, or approved by regulators. These negotiations and contracts are usually cloaked in secrecy.
And not only is there no escape clause for the governments, but they’re bound, by liability waivers, to indemnify the vaccine companies. Thus, any and all legal claims arising from vaccine injuries are picked up by taxpayers—not by manufacturers of the product. Yes, the liability shield is yet another form of subsidy, permitting these private companies to assume none of the risks but to reap the entire reward.
It’s a Political Problem
This brings us full circle back to where we began. Protection is being afforded the world’s most powerful corporations. Their profits are being guaranteed. The investor class that finances and fuels the mRNA gravy train assumes no risk. Clearly, such “baby” PREP Act declarations signed by Becerra and Kennedy are designed to protect the investors who currently puppeteer the US government.
We’ve established that the installation of the latest targeted PREP Act declaration is an abomination in and of itself.
We’ve also substantiated that what RFK signed could certainly be the initial move of a longer-term strategy, in which these “micro-acts” are rolled out every time a new mRNA product is on the cusp of being rolled out.
Furthermore, we’ve determined that RFK’s micro-act and succeeding micro-acts should be placed in the larger context of the mRNA “biomedical revolution” that has garnered billions if not trillions of investors dollars over the past few decades.
The vaccine gravy train will continue to chug along, provided the never-ending tax dollars get delivered to the pharma investors in the form of substantial grants, subsidies, and research allotments. Once that pipeline spigot gets turned off, though, all of this gravy goes away.
In the meantime, forewarned is forearmed.
